961
WTNT43 KNHC 281500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026
1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2026
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS
BEEN TRACKING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND CENTER. DESPITE SIGNIFICANT
WESTERLY SHEAR THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER, AND THE SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED PEAK
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS A RESULT
OF THIS DATA, THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO 40-KT TROPICAL
STORM HANNA AT THIS TIME.
THE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SO LITTLE, IF ANY,
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SHEAR AND
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING. SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CEASE IN ABOUT 60 HOURS, THEREFORE THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.
HANNA IS MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. AN EASTWARD TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. AFTER THAT TIME, THE WESTERLIES LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND
GDMI MODELS WHICH ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 36.6N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 36.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 34.8N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 33.9N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 33.9N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 34.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 35.3N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page