811
WTNT41 KNHC 290850
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
500 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2026
PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION AROUND FAY
HAS INCREASINGLY BECOME MORE SHEARED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
INFRARED IMAGERY DOES STILL SHOW SOME OF THE CONVECTION HAS CLOUD
TOPS NEAR -70 C. IN ADDITION, THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS
2.0/30 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 33-43 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED
INITIAL MOTION OF 235/11 KT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS GUIDED BY THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI
FORECAST AIDS.
WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PULSATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE INTENSITY WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE AS WELL. HOWEVER THAT CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS, FAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND
AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST GUIDANCE AND FAY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH
AFTERWARDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.0N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.1N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ
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