813
WTNT41 KNHC 291449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2026
FAY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS REMAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED
FURTHER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND TAFB HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD TO
AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT, MAKING FAY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE
AGAIN.
FAY IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 225/10 KT, STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HCCA
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AID.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS FAY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS, GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME COMPLETELY
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT
THAT TIME, BEFORE OPENING INTO A TROUGH SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GIVEN
THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL OR DISSIPATE EVEN EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 24.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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