776
WTPZ44 KNHC 291451
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR (FORMER INVEST EP91) HAS HAD ENOUGH ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT,
CONSISTENT WITH AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A DVORAK 2.0
FROM TAFB.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE CENTER IS
MOSTLY EXPOSED WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE
SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY BEFORE IT FEELS
THE COLD WAKE OF FORMER HURRICANE ODALYS BY TOMORROW. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DRY OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE THE
DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEGENERATE INTO A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE THURSDAY. THE NHC FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION WHILE THE CYCLONE
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH, ENHANCED BY BOTH THE STRONG EL NINO EVENT
AND WESTERN HEMISPHERE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. THE TRACK IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AND LEANS TOWARD THE
HCCA CORRECTED-CONSENSUS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 14.4N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 14.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 15.0N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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