371
WTPZ33 KNHC 291749
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
1200 PM CST TUE SEP 29 2026
..RACHEL HOLDING STEADY SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.7N 105.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NORTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO, BUT STAY OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER ADAMS
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