916
WTNT43 KNHC 292032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026
900 PM GMT TUE SEP 29 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
HANNA CONTINUES MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE AREA HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED
EAST-WEST AND THE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE FRONTAL THAN IT DID SIX HOURS
AGO DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR AND TO THE EAST
OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT
BASED ON THIS AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 125/10 KT. HANNA IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION. DURING THE NEXT
12-24 H, THE FLOW NEAR THE CYCLONE BECOME MORE WEST-TO-EAST, AND AS
HANNA WEAKENS VERTICALLY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AZORES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TURNING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
DUE MAINLY TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
HANNA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND
POSSIBLE MERGER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO STOP
PRODUCING CONVECTION AT AROUND 36 H, AT WHICH TIME IT WOULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 96 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 34.0N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 33.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 33.9N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 34.5N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z 35.4N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0600Z 36.2N 35.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z 36.8N 32.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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