762
WTPZ44 KNHC 292033
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN'S CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
COMPLETELY EXPOSED, WITH LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LYING SEVERAL
DOZEN MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON JUST CLIPPED THE STORM'S EASTERN FLANK, SO TD 19'S
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL HEDGE MORE TOWARDS TAFB'S LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 2.0/30 KT, REMAINING STEADY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AS WELL,
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION SET AT 85/6 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT IS STEERED BY A
NORTHWARD-DISPLACED EQUATORIAL TROUGH. LITTLE WAS CHANGED IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AS MODELS ARE LARGELY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STORM'S PATH. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORWARD SPEED WERE MADE TO BETTER FOLLOW CURRENT TRENDS.
SEVERAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE DEPRESSION. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRYING MID-LEVEL AIR,
AND MARGINAL SSTS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF ODALYS ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
DIURNAL CONVECTION CYCLES MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, HOWEVER SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 48 H. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST MOVES UP THE
DEPRESSION'S POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION TIME TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 14.2N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.2N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 14.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.7N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 14.8N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0600Z 14.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page