070
WTNT43 KNHC 300235
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026
300 AM GMT WED SEP 30 2026
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AREA.
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME EVEN MORE ELONGATED WEST-EAST,
LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 0032 UTC
METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS PEAK WINDS OF 33 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS T2.5/35 KT,
ALIGNING WELL WITH THE MOSTLY UNCHANGED UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SOUTHEASTWARD, NOW 130/10 KT, AS HANNA IS
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. DURING
THE NEXT 12–24 H, THE FLOW NEAR THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME MORE
WEST-TO-EAST, AND AS HANNA WEAKENS VERTICALLY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE, OR ITS REMNANTS,
TURNING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST TRACK WAS
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA).
HANNA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PERSISTS IN A
MOISTURE-STARVED ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 H. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO STOP
PRODUCING CONVECTION IN 24-36 H, AT WHICH TIME IT WOULD DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN
INTO A TROUGH BY 96 H. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM
BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM SOONER IF IT MERGES WITH THE NEARBY
FRONT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 33.7N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 33.6N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 34.1N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 34.7N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 35.4N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1200Z 36.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0000Z 36.6N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI
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