069
WTPZ44 KNHC 300235
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE MAJORITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E'S CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
STILL DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION, AND A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION MAY RE-IGNITE THE SYSTEM'S STRENGTH, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. AS A
RESULT, THE DEPRESSION'S INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO
25 KT.
INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 105/08 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY EASTWARD PATH, WITH SLIGHT WOBBLES
IN ITS TRACK, AS IT IS GUIDED BY A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED EQUATORIAL
TROUGH. WITH MODELS OVERALL EXHIBITING STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY, MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST.
WITH NINETEEN-E REMAINING IN AN ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRYING MID-LEVEL AIR, AND MARGINAL SSTS LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF ODALYS, THE TIME TO POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WAS MOVED UP SLIGHTLY TO 36 H, OR THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
HOW LITTLE CONVECTION IS PERSISTING THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE
BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, IF AT ALL. THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE DEPRESSION'S STRENGTH STEADY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DISSIPATION STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 13.8N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.4N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 14.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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