513
WTPZ44 KNHC 300837
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
200 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2026
APART FROM SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS ALL BUT DEVOID
OF CONVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
CLOSED CIRCULATION, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. A 0531 UTC METOP-C
SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH PEAK
WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
FIX WAS T2.0/30 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, NOW AT
110/08 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PATH, WITH SLIGHT WOBBLES IN ITS TRACK, AS IT IS
STEERED BY A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPDATED NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE SIMPLE (TVCN) AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA)
AIDS.
NINETEEN-E IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN A MOISTURE-STARVED
ENVIRONMENT. THE DEPRESSION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 H, BUT GIVEN HOW LITTLE
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT THIS TRANSITION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE BIGGEST SOURCE
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, IF AT ALL. THE LATEST INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS THE DEPRESSION'S STRENGTH STEADY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, FOLLOWING THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, WITH DISSIPATION
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 60 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 13.6N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.1N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.7N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 14.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PIERCE/ROBERTS
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