264
WTNT43 KNHC 300843
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082026
900 AM GMT WED SEP 30 2026
THIS MORNING'S CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF
A POORLY ORGANIZED, SEVERELY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE THAN 170 MI EAST OF THE SURFACE
CENTER, A 0318 UTC OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS. BASED ON THIS SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
HANNA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY DUE TO INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE
GFS/ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE/IR IMAGERY PREDICTION SHOWS HANNA
QUICKLY LOSING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOMING A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT AND OPENING INTO A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
STATISTICAL DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT
THE REMNANTS OF HANNA COULD MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST.
HANNA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, OR
120/4 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING WHILE
THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BY THIS EVENING, HANNA SHOULD TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE CYCLONE DEGENERATES INTO A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
NUDGED TOWARD THE HFIP HCCA GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 33.5N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 33.9N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 34.4N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 35.2N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 35.4N 36.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1800Z 35.6N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0600Z 35.3N 32.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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