314
WTPZ44 KNHC 301447
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
800 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2026
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E, WITH
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -70C IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO CONTEND WITH APPROXIMATELY 20
KT OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RECENT SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25-32 KT. BASED ON THE INCREASING CONVECTION
AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NINETEEN-E IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 9 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, PRIMARILY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD-DISPLACED MONSOON TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE. SIMILAR
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING MODERATE WIND SHEAR
AND A RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY AND WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND 24 H, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING, AND NINETEEN-E IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 H, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
FORECAST BY 48 H, CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 14.3N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.9N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS
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