835
WTPZ44 KNHC 302033
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2026
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, CONVECTION
HAS FALLEN APART THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ALMOST TOTALLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE FALLING
AGAIN, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT USING A BLEND OF
THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE VALUES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODALYS AND EVENTUALLY STARTS TO MOVE
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF RACHEL'S MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH, MOSTLY BASED ON
A MORE PRECISE INITIAL POSITIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS SHOWN FOR THE DEPRESSION DUE TO
MODERATE SHEAR AND PLENTIFUL DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, SOMEWHAT COUNTERED
BY WARMING SSTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT ALONG
WITH A BIT DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING AN
END TO ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS, THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODELS SIMULATED SATELLITE DATA. I WILL JUST MENTION SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THURSDAY, BUT
THAT IS DEEMED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS LISTED ABOVE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 14.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.2N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.3N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 15.3N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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