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WTPZ44 KNHC 010231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2026
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION, IT HAS BEEN TRANSIENT AND LACKS
ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY IF
THE CONVECTION DOES NOT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. REGARDLESS OF ITS
STATUS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY, IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT
THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES
HURRICANE RACHEL TO ITS EAST. THE NHC FORECAST HAS MOVED UP
DISSIPATION TO 36 HOURS, IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KT, AND THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 15.2N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.4N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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