864
WTPZ33 KNHC 010234
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM MST WED SEP 30 2026
..RACHEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.2N 108.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RACHEL.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST LATER THIS
WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RACHEL COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AND
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR RACHEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ43 KNHC.
WIND: GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL: RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES,
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO,
MICHOACáN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
RACHEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.
FORECASTER GIBBS
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