307
WTPZ44 KNHC 010844
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
200 AM PDT THU OCT 01 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINS LIMITED, WITH
MAINLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, WITH PEAK WINDS UP TO 25 KT
SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 25 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE CYCLONE'S
ABILITY TO STRENGTHEN OR BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 H, THEN DISSIPATING IN 36 H AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE RACHEL. THE NHC FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT, AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 15.3N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.4N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.2N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS
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