220
WTPZ44 KNHC 011444
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192026
800 AM PDT THU OCT 01 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BURST INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX WAS T1.5/25 KT, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 27-41 KT. BASED ON THE
AVAILABLE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 25 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 90/14KT, AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
AS EASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND MORE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. THE GUIDANCE AIDS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO, SHOWING THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 H. THE
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page