286
WTPZ43 KNHC 012036
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM MST THU OCT 01 2026
RACHEL'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
RAGGED EYE BECOMING APPARENT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE EYE WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C.
THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AND
HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED, AS ANTICIPATED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO CLIMB, WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 KT. GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND EYE FORMATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/3 KT. THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF RACHEL, WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER WESTWARD FORWARD MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THIS
RE-ACCELERATION WILL OCCUR. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO REFLECT THE CURRENT POSITION AND IS ALSO
SLOWER IN THE NEAR TERM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
TRACK BLENDS TOWARD THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE SHOWING A BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
MAY IMPACT THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH COULD SLOW THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM MAY INDUCE
UPWELLING, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE COOL WAKE LEFT BY POLO COULD
INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS, AS RACHEL BEGINS TO MOVE
WESTWARD, IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE 27C ISOTHERM AND
INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND. THE ULTIMATE STRUCTURE OF RACHEL, PARTICULARLY IF IT TAKES ON
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS, WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE RATE OF THIS
WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL
TRENDS, BUT THEN TRENDS BACK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 19.4N 109.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.6N 111.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.8N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 20.1N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 20.2N 117.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 20.6N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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