283
WTPZ43 KNHC 020235
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM MST THU OCT 01 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH RACHEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A RAGGED
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS -85 C PERSISTS, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T5.5/102 KT, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. GIVEN THESE ESTIMATES AND THE RELATIVELY STEADY
SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/3 KT. LITTLE CHANGE
IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM
REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH, SUPPORTING A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK WITH THE FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BETWEEN 96 AND 120 H AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE
ACCELERATION. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 H. SOME
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE DURING THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH RACHEL'S WELL-ESTABLISHED
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN
THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER, INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM, WHILE SOME
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD PERSIST. THESE FACTORS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISRUPT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND. INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 5.
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SHOWING RACHEL REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 H. THIS PEAK REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, WITH THE FORECAST THEREAFTER GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 19.5N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 19.5N 110.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.5N 111.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 19.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.2N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 20.8N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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