648
WTPZ43 KNHC 020836
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM MST FRI OCT 02 2026
RACHEL'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE EYE BECOMING OBSCURED IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. A
0429 UTC METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASS HELPED REFINE THE WIND RADII AND
STRUCTURE. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATE FROM TAFB DECREASED TO
4.5/77 KT, WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 87 TO 104
KT. GIVEN THESE ESTIMATES AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 270/4 KT, AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
BETWEEN 72 AND 96 H AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
ALTHOUGH MODEST EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
ARE CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR RACHEL TO REMAIN NEAR ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 H, ESPECIALLY WHILE THE
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THEREAFTER, INCREASINGLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM, WHILE
SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD PERSIST. THESE FACTORS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISRUPT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND. INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 5.
THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SHOWING RACHEL HOLDING STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 H
AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 19.4N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.5N 111.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.7N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.8N 113.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.6N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.6N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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