169
WTPZ43 KNHC 021451
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 AM MST FRI OCT 02 2026
RACHEL'S INNER CORE LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAN IT DID 6 TO 12 HOURS AGO. THE EYEWALL IS NOT VERY TIGHT
AND COMPACT, WITH AREAS OF DRY AIR INTRUSION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
EYEWALL. THE LATEST TAFB CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 5.5/102 KT,
BUT THE FINAL-T NUMBER IS 4.5/77 KT. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 80-95 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT, WHICH IS 5 KT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NHC ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 265/5 KT AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE TIMING OF THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND
LIES NEAR THE HCCA AID. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MIGHT BE HELPING
SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO ENTRAIN INTO RACHEL'S CORE, WHICH SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING THE EYEWALL TO BECOME A BIT MORE SPREAD OUT AND DIFFUSE
COMPARED TO 12 HOURS AGO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
ABATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH
IS ABOUT 15 KT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AT HOUR 12 AND
24. THIS FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BEYOND HOUR 24 THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
RACHEL TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS OR SO.
THE LATEST FORECAST FLATLINES THE INTENSITY AT 70 KT FROM HOUR 36 TO
DAY 4, WHICH IS ALSO NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HAFS
MODELS, HWRF AND HMON SHOW RACHEL WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN STAYING AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER DAY 4, RACHEL WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE 26C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM TOWARD COOLER WATER WHILE
ALSO REACHING A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 19.3N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.3N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 20.8N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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