669
WTPZ43 KNHC 022031
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM MST FRI OCT 02 2026
THE STRUCTURE OF RACHEL HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE CAN STILL BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CAN ALSO BE DESCRIBED
AS HAVING A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OR EMBEDDED CENTER, WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SPANNING ROUGHLY 200 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T4.5/77 KT, AND
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM ABOUT 77-99
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, AS A COMPROMISE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 265/4 KT AND HAS MADE
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH SOCORRO ISLAND, PASSING ABOUT 30 TO 35 N MI
NORTH OF THE STATION, WHICH RECORDED WINDS OF 53 KT GUSTING TO 74 KT
AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE 982.6 MB. THIS DATA FITS IN NICELY WITH A
PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES OVER RACHEL FROM AROUND 1700 UTC. THE
PREVIOUS OPERATIONAL RADII DIDN'T NEED MUCH ADJUSTING SINCE THE
ASCAT PASSES SHOWED VERY SIMILAR RADII TO WHAT WE WERE CARRYING.
THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST A HAIR NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA
AND TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS. THE NHC FORECAST IS STILL ABOUT 30 MILES
TO THE LEFT (OR SOUTH) OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN,
ESPECIALLY FROM HOUR 24 TO 96.
THE HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS,
AND THE GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH EITHER ON THIS CYCLE, SO NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS, MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR COULD AFFECT RACHEL
SOME. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ALONG THE HURRICANE'S PATH DURING THAT TIME FROM 29 TO 27C AS RACHEL
ENCOUNTERS THE COLD WAKE FROM HURRICANE POLO. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME, SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 28C ALONG RACHEL'S
PATH AS IT MOVES OUT OF POLO'S COLD WAKE, BUT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE COMPETING FACTORS
ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 36- TO
72-HOUR PERIOD, AND NHC CONTINUES TO FLATLINE RACHEL AT 70 KT DURING
THAT TIME. IN 4-5 DAYS, RACHEL SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SST ISOTHERM
WHILE IT REACHES AN EVEN DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS, AND THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 19.3N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.4N 111.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.2N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.3N 115.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 21.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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