014
WTPZ43 KNHC 030240
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM MST FRI OCT 02 2026
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF RACHEL HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CLOUD-FILLED EYE INSIDE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WITH
MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T4.5/77 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 79 TO 94 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
BLENDING THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/4 KT, OR SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FORWARD SPEED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 96 H, THEN NUDGES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER,
LYING NEAR THE RELIABLE HCCA CONSENSUS MODEL.
RACHEL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A MOISTURE-STARVED ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ALONG THE HURRICANE'S PATH WILL DECREASE FROM 29 TO 27C OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 H AS RACHEL MOVES THROUGH THE COLD WAKE OF
HURRICANE POLO, FURTHER EXPEDITING THIS WEAKENING. BEYOND THAT TIME,
SSTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO 28C AS THE CYCLONE EXITS THE COLD
WAKE, THOUGH IT WILL BE ENTERING AN INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE 48- TO 72-HOUR PERIOD, AND
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FLATLINE RACHEL AT 70 KT. BY
96 TO 120 HOURS, RACHEL IS FORECAST TO CROSS SUB-26C WATERS AND
ENCOUNTER EVEN DRIER AIR, INDUCING STEADY WEAKENING BACK TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 19.4N 111.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 19.5N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 20.4N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 21.2N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 22.1N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER PIERCE/BEVEN
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