120
WTPZ43 KNHC 030836
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM MST SAT OCT 03 2026
RACHEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE
IS NO LONGER ANY EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE
70-90 KT RANGE AND ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. BASED ON THE TREND, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/4 KT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
OF RACHEL, AND THIS ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 72 H. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION. BY 96-120 H, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
LIKELY TO RESUME AS RACHEL APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR 48-60
H, AND THEN IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH BASED ON A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 H AS
RACHEL CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CROSSES THE
COLD WATER WAKE OF HURRICANE POLO. AFTER THAT, THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AT A TIME WHERE THE HURRICANE IS
LIKELY TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR. THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN 36-72 H. AFTER 72
H, RACHEL SHOULD MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND CONTINUE
TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.6N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.9N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 20.4N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 21.2N 121.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 22.2N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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