171
WTPZ43 KNHC 031437
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 AM MST SAT OCT 03 2026
RACHEL'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE
OVER PAST DAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY
VOID IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH IS LIKELY ALLOWING SOME DRY
AIR TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER OF RACHEL. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER FROM TAFB IS 4.5/77 KT. RECENT
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 65-72 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
RACHEL IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 DEGREES AT 3
KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OUT IN FRONT OF RACHEL'S
PATH. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING QUITE SLOWLY FOR THE
NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO RACHEL'S
WEST-NORTHWEST. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL VERY GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
EASTWARD, WHICH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE 3- TO 5-DAY
TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW RACHEL TO GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED BY
HOUR 60, WITH A CONTINUED MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 60 H, AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AT
DAYS 4-5. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA), AND LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH 96 H. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NORTH-SOUTH (CROSS-TRACK)
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE.
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) DECREASE ALONG RACHEL'S PATH WHILE
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE COLD WATER WAKE LEFT OVER BY HURRICANE
POLO LAST WEEK. AFTER RACHEL EMERGES OUT OF POLO'S COLD WAKE, SOME
SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND THIS RESTRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN IN THE HAFS-A, HAFS-B, AND HWRF MODELS. BEYOND HOUR 72,
RACHEL WILL REACH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEAR 40 PERCENT. SSTS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING AT THAT TIME, AND
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C DEGREE SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 4
DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING IN THE 3- TO
5-DAY TIME FRAME DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND COOLING SSTS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST 4 DAYS AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.9N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.2N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.5N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 20.8N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 21.3N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 22.3N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN
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