417
WTPZ43 KNHC 032054
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM MST SAT OCT 03 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RACHEL HAS FORMED A LARGER EYE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE INNER EYEWALL FADING AWAY ON THE LATEST
INFRARED DATA. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY, AND
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS
4.5/77 KT, BUT THE FINAL T-NUMBER WAS 4.0/65 KT. THIS ALIGNS WELL
WITH MOST UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH
RANGE FROM 63 TO 77 KT. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/4 KT.
RACHEL'S SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE GOVERNED BY A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SLIGHTLY AFTER 60 H, CONTINUING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND ROUGHLY FOLLOWS THE CORRECTED-CONSENSUS (HCCA) AID
THROUGH 120 H.
RACHEL IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUAL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H DUE
TO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE POLO'S COLD WAKE. AS RACHEL
MOVES WEST OF THE WAKE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE WEEKEND THROUGH 72 H.
HOWEVER, BEYOND 72 H, RACHEL WILL ENCOUNTER AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS,
WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT.
AT THE SAME TIME, SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 C, LIKELY EXPEDITING THE
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.8N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE
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