470
WTPZ43 KNHC 040834
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM MST SUN OCT 04 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RACHEL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. WHILE THE EYE IS NOT VERY CLEAR
AT THIS TIME, THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH
SOME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 76-104 KT RANGE, AND THEY HAVE ALL
TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 72 H AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENS A BIT.
AFTER 72 H, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR 130-135W, AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES THE BREAK. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS
TRACK, AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED
TRACK GUIDANCE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT RACHEL SHOULD BE
CROSSING POLO'S COLD WAKE RIGHT NOW. THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND
IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THIS, THOUGH. DURING THE NEXT 24 H, THE
HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER THAT IN THEORY
SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN
THESE MIXED SIGNALS, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW A STEADY
INTENSITY FOR 12 H, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING BASED ON THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE TRENDS. RACHEL SHOULD ENCOUNTER A DRIER AIR
MASS AND REACH WATER TEMPERATURES OF 25-26C STARTING IN ABOUT 72 H,
BUT DURING THIS TIME THE FORECAST WIND SHEAR BECOMES QUITE LIGHT.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS,
WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW ANY WEAKENING. OVERALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 20.2N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 20.6N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 20.9N 121.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 21.8N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 22.7N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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