955
WTPZ43 KNHC 041435
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 AM MST SUN OCT 04 2026
RACHEL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT, AND
THE INNER CORE IS WELL ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT
COMPLETELY SYMMETRIC, HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE EYE. THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 80 TO ABOUT 100 KT, AND
BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 90 KT.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM
LAST NIGHT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF RACHEL SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO TURN WESTWARD BY TONIGHT, AND MOVE SLOWLY IN THAT DIRECTION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER THAT TIME, THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH CUTS OFF NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RACHEL TO TURN BACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, TRENDING
TOWARD THE LATEST GDMI AND HCCA GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, RACHEL WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY. HOWEVER, AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
FARTHER WEST, IT WILL BE ENTERING A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS AND
MOVING OVER SUB 26C WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE, STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 114.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 20.9N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 21.3N 122.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 22.2N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.8N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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