464
WTPZ43 KNHC 042032
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM MST SUN OCT 04 2026
RACHEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL ESTABLISHED INNER CORE, BUT THE
EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLOUD-FILLED AND RAGGED COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
85 TO 97 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA AND THE RELATIVELY STEADY
STATE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90
KT. A 1616 UTC ASCAT-B WAS HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE INITIAL WIND
RADII.
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5 KT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF RACHEL SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH CUTS OFF
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RACHEL TO
TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, AND THIS ONE LIES
NEAR THE BEST-PERFORMING MODELS OF THE YEAR SO FAR, HCCA AND GDMI.
RACHEL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER WEST, IT WILL BE ENTERING A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS AND MOVING OVER SUB 26C WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IS
LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 20.1N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 20.3N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.4N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 20.6N 119.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 21.4N 122.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 22.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 22.6N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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