044
WTPZ43 KNHC 050234
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM MST SUN OCT 04 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR RACHEL HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN AND THE INNER CORE SEEMS TO
HAVE COME APART AS WELL. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IT APPEARS
THAT DRY AIR HAS MANAGED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE. USING A COMBINATION OF THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK FIX
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT. THIS LEVEL OF INTENSITY COULD
BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.
RACHEL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 6 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IT ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERWARDS,
THE HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH CUTS OFF CLOSE
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO TURN BACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BEING MADE BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
MORE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR RACHEL.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER A MORE DRIER ENVIRONMENT
AS IT MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 26C OR LESS IN A FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, HOWEVER THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE TRENDS OF THE HCCA FORECAST
AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 20.2N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.3N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 20.4N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.4N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 21.1N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.6N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.2N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
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