278
WTPZ43 KNHC 052033
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT MON OCT 05 2026
THE WEAKENING TREND OF RACHEL HAS PAUSED FOR NOW. SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LARGE,
WELL DEFINED AND WARM, AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS NUDGING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UP TO 80
KT.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 KT STEERED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. A CONTINUED WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE.
HOWEVER, BY THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, AND THIS ONE LIES
GENERALLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH RACHEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER, NO NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECASTS WERE MADE. THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED
MUCH THIS CYCLE, AND THIS PREDICTION IS IN LINE WITH THE HCCA,
GDMI, AND IVCN AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 20.7N 120.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 21.6N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.3N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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