037
AXPZ20 KNHC 052052
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 117.1W AT 05/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 31 FT (9.5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 120 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES. A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINNING BY THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED
BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST 92E): A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N85W TO 15N105W, AND
FROM 11N115W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND
105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND
INVEST 92E OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH SWELL AND POTENTIAL ROUGH
SURF ALONG THE COAST ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS OF RACHEL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, THE MAIN
FOCUS IS INVEST 92E, THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF WESTERN
OAXACA. GENTLE BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN OPEN WATERS AND
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.5N 117.3W THIS EVENING,
20.5N 118.9W TUE MORNING, AND 20.7N 120.2W TUE EVENING. THE
CENTER OF RACHEL WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TO 21.1N 121.7W WED
MORNING, THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 123.1W WED
EVENING, AND MOVE TO 22.0N 124.6W THU MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TODAY AS RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, ALONG WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR
THIS WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
SOUTH OF MEXICO.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AFFECTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.3N 118.2W TONIGHT,
20.4N 119.5W TUE AFTERNOON, 20.7N 120.9W WED NIGHT, AND 21.2N
122.3W WED AFTERNOON. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 21.6N 123.7W THU MORNING, THEN MOVE TO 21.9N 124.9W THU
AFTERNOON. RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
22.3N 126.0W FRI AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL
WILL REACH AS FAR AS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W AND 125W TUE THROUGH
LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD OVER
THE WATERS NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 110W LATER THIS WEEK AS
INVEST 92E BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
CHRISTENSEN
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