877
WTPZ43 KNHC 060235
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM PDT MON OCT 05 2026
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR RACHEL HAS BECOME FAR LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS
STARTED TO FILL IN AGAIN AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC BASED ON THE INFRARED IMAGERY. USING A COMBINATION OF
THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KT STEERED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RACHEL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AS A RESULT, RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION WITH DRIER AIR AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS RACHEL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING IN
A SIMILAR TREND TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ON THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
HCCA FORECAST AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 20.4N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 21.8N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 22.2N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.7N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 24.2N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
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