300
AXPZ20 KNHC 060323
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 117.9W AT 06/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 31 FT (9.5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 17N TO 23N AND BETWEEN 115W
AND 121W. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST 92E): A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 15N99W, AND FROM 12N119W
TO BEYOND 12N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND
INVEST 92E OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACTS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RACHEL,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF MEXICO DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.5N 119.0W TUE MORNING,
20.6N 120.3W TUE EVENING, 21.0N 121.7W WED MORNING, 21.5N 123.0W
WED EVENING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.8N 124.4W THU
MORNING, AND 22.2N 125.4W THU EVENING. RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE 22.7N 125.7W LATE FRI. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TONIGHT AND TUE AS RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SUSTAIN
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MAINLY MODERATE SEAS NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, ALONG WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THIS WEEK
AS INVEST 92E BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF MEXICO.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AFFECTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC,
SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL IS NEAR 20.4N 117.9W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80
KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973
MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.5N 119.0W TUE MORNING, 20.6N 120.3W
TUE EVENING, 21.0N 121.7W WED MORNING, 21.5N 123.0W WED EVENING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.8N 124.4W THU MORNING, AND
22.2N 125.4W THU EVENING. RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO THE 22.7N 125.7W LATE FRI FARTHER SOUTH, LONG-PERIOD
SW SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR AS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W AND 125W
TUE THROUGH LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS MAY INCREASE AND SEAS
BUILD OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 110W LATER THIS
WEEK AS INVEST 92E BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
DELGADO
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