737
WTPZ43 KNHC 060840
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 06 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT RACHEL'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
DEGRADED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED,
WHILE THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T4.5/77 KT, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE CONTINUED
DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 270/7 KT. A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. BY LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO SLOW DOWN,
TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD, AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES
NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, HAVE BEGUN TO TAKE A TOLL ON RACHEL'S CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THESE FACTORS, COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, SHOULD RESULT IN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO,
SHOWING RACHEL STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5 AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION, WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, AND
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.3N 118.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 20.4N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 20.7N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.7N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER GIBBS
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