664
WTPZ43 KNHC 062031
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 06 2026
RACHEL CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ERODING, WITH THE EYE NOW OPEN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE. CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED, AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 73 AND 85 KT.
GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 275/6 KT. RACHEL IS BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE U.S. WEST COAST, WHICH WILL ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RACHEL TO SLOW DOWN,
TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, AND THEN RE-ACCELERATE. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST, THOUGH IT HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY RIGHT AND FASTER AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD WHICH TRENDS TOWARDS THE HCCA AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STEADILY ERODING THE CONVECTION, AND THE
SURROUNDING AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. ALTHOUGH
WIND SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY RELAX, THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THESE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
INTERMITTENT AND DISORGANIZED, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS, SHOWING GRADUAL THEN
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 20.5N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.7N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.8N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.3N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 22.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 22.9N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.9N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KELLY
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