936
WTPZ43 KNHC 070235
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 06 2026
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT ACROSS RACHEL'S NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE STORM'S DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS ITS SOUTHERN HALF, INDICATIVE OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS
4.5/77 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 70 TO
75 KT. GIVEN THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED AT 285/5 KT. RACHEL CONTINUES TO
BE STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING RACHEL TO SLOW
DOWN BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
GAIN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST,
OTHER THAN TO ADJUST IT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE HCCA GUIDANCE.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE,
DEFINED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND COOLING SSTS. ONCE RACHEL MAKES
ITS FORECASTED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL, DRIVEN HEAVILY BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AND
RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 20.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 21.4N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 22.5N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 23.1N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 25.6N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0000Z 29.6N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS
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