504
WTNT44 KNHC 070255
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED SURFACE CENTER, BUT
RECENTLY A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS EMERGED CLOSER TO THIS LOCATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR NOW, CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. AN ASCAT-C PASS IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER THIS ADVISORY ISSUANCE AND WILL BE
HELPFUL IN REASSESSING THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD (080/4 KT) WITHIN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, ITS PASSAGE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH IS
PREDICTED BY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS NORTHWARD TURN, WITH THE
AI-BASED MODELS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND GENERALLY
FASTER THAN THE PHYSICS-BASED GUIDANCE. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 48-96 H TO BRING IT CLOSER TO THE
LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA), BUT REMAINS ON THE FAST AND RIGHT
SIDE OF THE LATEST MODELS. USERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST
UPDATES GIVEN THE BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, MOIST MID-LEVELS, AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW THE COMPACT SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST SKILLFUL
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF,
AND THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AND
PEAK INTENSITY AS THE PRIOR FORECAST, GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND HCCA AIDS. DUE TO STRONG SHEAR, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM PEAKS IN STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
AS A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
AND MOTION ASYMMETRIES WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO
EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF DANGEROUS WIND AND STORM SURGE
IMPACTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND WATCHES COULD
BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND
ENSURE THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE.
2. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED RIVER FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
3. YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO: THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 22.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 23.2N 91.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.3N 89.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 26.1N 88.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 28.8N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 34.1N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 39.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
FORECASTER REINHART
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