852
AXPZ20 KNHC 070325
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 120.4W AT 07/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO
85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 32 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 17N TO 22N AND BETWEEN
118W AND 123W. .
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING (INVEST 92E): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN
AND SW MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS NEAR 90W, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 06N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECITON IS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 12N86W TO A 1006 MB LOW
(EP92) NEAR 13N99W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESTARTS NEAR 13N115W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N-18N BETWEEN 95W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 103W-110W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECITON IS OCCURRING FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 77W-88W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
MEXICO, AND INVEST 92E OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, MAINLY WEST OF 114W.
FARTHER SOUTH, A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE, MONITORED AS INVEST
92E, IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
GENERATING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
MAINLY BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.8N 121.4W WED MORNING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.4N 122.6W WED EVENING, 21.9N
123.8W THU MORNING, 22.3N 124.9W THU EVENING, 22.5N 125.2W FRI
MORNING, AND 23.1N 124.4W FRI EVENING. RACHEL WILL BECOME POST-
TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO THE 25.6N 119.9W LATE SAT. A WEAKENING
RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE SAT EVENING AS IT TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST 92E) LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
ACROSS FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS 4-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, QUIESCENT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND EQUATORIAL ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER, LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
CHANCE IS NEAR ZERO THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS LOW THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AFFECTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE AND WEAKER WINDS ACROSS
FORECAST WATERS. LARGE LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BETWEEN 95W-125W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.8N 121.4W WED MORNING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.4N 122.6W WED EVENING, 21.9N
123.8W THU MORNING, 22.3N 124.9W THU EVENING, 22.5N 125.2W FRI
MORNING, AND 23.1N 124.4W FRI EVENING. RACHEL WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL
AS IT MOVES TO THE 25.6N 119.9W LATE SAT. A WEAKENING RACHEL
SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT
EVENING AS IT TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE (INVEST 92E) LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
DELGADO
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