716
WTNT34 KNHC 070852
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
400 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2026
..DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS
..FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND THE U.S. NORTHERN
GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S.
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. ISAIAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO, AND ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR ISAIAS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE STATES OF
CAMPECHE AND WESTERN YUCATAN.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 10
INCHES, ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST EXTENDING FROM FAR
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS FAR NORTH AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE CAROLINAS. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH ISOLATED
RIVER FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ISAIAS, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RAINQPF AND
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK GRAPHIC AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?ERO.
WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.
SURF: SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND
AT: HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT4.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page