173
AXPZ20 KNHC 071010
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0935 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 121.2W AT 07/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO
85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 30 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 23N AND BETWEEN 119W
AND 124W. A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RACHEL IS THEN FORECAST
TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL TO STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM WARNING (INVEST 92E): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, INCLUDING STORM WARNINGS, SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N86W TO A 1006 MB LOW
(EP92) NEAR 14N100W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESTARTS NEAR 10N115W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NORTH OF 03N AND BETWEEN 90W AND 109W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
MEXICO, AND INVEST 92E OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS PERSIST WEST OF 115W AND SOUTH OF 27N. MEANWHILE,
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE, MONITORED AS INVEST 92E, IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO GENERATING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, MAINLY BETWEEN 96W AND
103W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WEAKEN. LATER, A WEAKENING RACHEL MAY REACH THE OFFSHORE
ZONES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING INTO SUN AS IT TURNS BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, MAINLY EAST OF PANAMA. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS 4-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN ECUADOR
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 KT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE IS NEAR ZERO THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND IS LOW THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED OVER THE NE WATERS AND INVEST 92E
CENTERED SOUTH OF MEXICO.
AWAY FROM HURRICANE RACHEL, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS. LARGE
LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BETWEEN 95W-125W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 21.1N 122.1W THIS
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 123.3W THU
MORNING, 22.2N 124.6W THU AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.2W FRI MORNING,
22.9N 124.8W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 24.1N 123.0W SAT MORNING. RACHEL
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO THE 29.2N 117.5W EARLY
SUN. A WEAKENING RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING AS IT TURNS BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY AFFECTING THE EASTERN WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
DELGADO
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