565
WTPZ45 KNHC 071458
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 AM CST WED OCT 07 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALTHOUGH A BIT ELONGATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, IS SIGNIFICANTLY WELL-DEFINED TO DESIGNATE
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/7 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ABUNDANT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THIS WEEK.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 14.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.6N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.0N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.3N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.7N 105.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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