619
WTPZ43 KNHC 072044
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
200 PM PDT WED OCT 07 2026
THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE INNER CORE HAS NOT RECOVERED, SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, RACHEL STILL HAS SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE'S EYEWALL LACKS CONVECTION DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR. A RECENT ASCAT PASS WAS USED
TO RE-EVALUATE THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD, BUT DUE TO
UNDERSAMPLING, IT WAS NOT USED FOR THE INTENSITY. USING A
COMBINATION OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE CYCLONE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/6
KT. CURRENTLY, RACHEL IS BEING STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND THAT TIME. ONCE THE TURN IS COMPLETE, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ACCELERATE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AFTER RACHEL MAKES THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, AND THAT UNCERTAINTY GROWS LARGER NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON THE HCCA AND
GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT HOW RESILIENT RACHEL HAS BEEN TO THE
IMPACTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT SO FAR, THE INTENSITY IS ON THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS STILL A HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR, AND
THE SIMULATED SATELLITE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE LOSES
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE 96 H
POINT SHOWS RACHEL AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IT WILL STILL HAVE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. OVERALL, THE CURRENT
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BEING MADE, BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST
AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
OVER THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS. GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
3. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 21.2N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.7N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 24.1N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.4N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 33.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 40.7N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
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