171
WTPZ35 KNHC 080233
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 PM CST WED OCT 07 2026
..SIMON FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.6N 102.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF SIMON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLIMA
AND MICHOACAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER HAGEN
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