537
WTPZ43 KNHC 080257
TCDEP3
HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 PM PDT WED OCT 07 2026
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SUGGEST THAT
RACHEL'S DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING. IN FACT, IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTION AROUND THE CYCLONE IS A BIT MORE NARROW, WITH A DRY
SLOT ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, RATHER THAN THE SHIELD OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE INNER CORE SEEN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB ALSO APPEARS TO
FOLLOW THIS WEAKENING TREND, HAVING ESTIMATED RACHEL'S INTENSITY AT
4.0/65 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO
65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED AT 290/6 KT. RACHEL CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN US. HOWEVER,
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS DEPICT RACHEL'S TRAJECTORY TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK AS IT IS PICKED UP BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AS RACHEL MAKES THIS
TURN, ITS FORWARD SPEED WILL SLOW, BEFORE ACCELERATING AS IT FOLLOWS
THE TROUGH TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
DEPICTING WHERE RACHEL WILL ULTIMATELY REACH LAND, COMPLICATED BY
THE SPEED AT WHICH THE STORM MAKES ITS FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD TURN.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT, IN
AN EFFORT TO BETTER CAPTURE THE BLEND BETWEEN GDMI AND HCCA
GUIDANCE, WHICH DEPICTS A SLOWER, SHARPER TURN AND THUS A TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
RACHEL'S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FURTHER AS IT ENTERS AN
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE STORM, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL. THUS, THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST HASTENS RACHEL'S WEAKENING TREND SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINS ON
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE INITIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
RACHEL'S RECENT RESILIENCE. THEREAFTER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRIP THE REMAINING CONVECTION WITHIN THE STORM, AND
RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY 96 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED,
HOWEVER, THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
ACCOMPANY WHAT REMAINS OF RACHEL'S CIRCULATION EVEN IF ITS
CONVECTION ERODES BY THE TIME IT IMPACTS LAND.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
OVER THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS. GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
3. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 21.4N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.6N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 24.9N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 28.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 36.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN
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