510
AXPZ20 KNHC 080342
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 122.9W AT 08/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 28 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 23N AND
BETWEEN 121W TO 124W. THE WNW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. RACHEL IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE
MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 08/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 14 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 14N TO 19N AND
BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. THE WNW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. RAPID STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE COAST
OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N86W TO 13N97W AND THEN FROM 11N114W TO
08N125W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
21.8N 123.7W THU MORNING, MOVE TO 22.3N 124.8W THU EVENING,
22.6N 124.9W FRI MORNING, 23.3N 123.5W FRI EVENING, 24.9N 120.9W
SAT MORNING, AND 28.0N 118.2W SAT EVENING. RACHEL SHOULD REACH
THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON SAT AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY SUN JUST SOUTH OF THE CALIFORNIA-
MEXICO BORDER AND MOVE INLAND TO NEAR 36.4N 113.0W LATE SUN.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL SLOWLY BE TRAVERSING AND IMPACTING THE
OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
SIMON WILL MOVE TO 15.8N 103.6W THU MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.1N 104.6W THU EVENING, 16.4N 105.3W FRI
MORNING, 16.9N 105.5W FRI EVENING, 17.8N 105.6W SAT MORNING, AND
18.9N 105.5W SAT EVENING. SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO THE 21.6N 105.8W LATE SUN.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF GUATEMALA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED OVER THE NE WATERS.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE RACHEL, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS. LARGE
LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
BETWEEN 95W-120W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL IS NEAR 21.4N 122.9W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
21.8N 123.7W THU MORNING, MOVE TO 22.3N 124.8W THU EVENING, 22.6N
124.9W FRI MORNING, 23.3N 123.5W FRI EVENING, 24.9N 120.9W SAT
MORNING. RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE ON SAT AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL. ADDITIONALLY,
THE LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
WATERS STARTING FRI AND CONTINUE INTO SUN.
DELGADO
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