272
WTPZ35 KNHC 080929 CCA
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
300 AM CST THU OCT 08 2026
CORRECTED TO INDICATE NEXT ADVISORY IS AN INTERMEDIATE FOR SIMON.
..SIMON EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN SOON
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. SIMON SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLIMA
AND MICHOACAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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