535
AXPZ20 KNHC 080941
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 103.1W AT 08/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N TO 18N AND BETWEEN 100W
AND 107W. A W MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY. SIMON SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.8N 123.9W AT 08/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 27 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 24N AND BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.
THE WNW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BEFORE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED, IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
RACHEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE COAST
OF PANAMA NEAR 08N83W TO 12N98W AND THEN FROM 11N115W TO 08N127W
TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 115W AND
127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SIMON OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL SLOWLY BE TRAVERSING
AND IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 104.1W THIS AFTERNOON,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.9N 105.1W FRI MORNING, 16.6N
105.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 17.4N 105.6W SAT MORNING, 18.3N 105.4W SAT
AFTERNOON, AND 19.3N 105.3W SUN MORNING NEAR SW MEXICO. SIMON
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR SW MEXICO EARLY
MON. MEANWHILE, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 22.1N 124.3W THIS AFTERNOON,
22.5N 125.0W FRI MORNING, 22.9N 124.7W FRI AFTERNOON, 24.0N
122.8W SAT MORNING. RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON SAT AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NE. FINALLY,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY
SUN JUST SOUTH OF THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER AND INLAND OVER EARLY
MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF GUATEMALA DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THE SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL LOCATED OVER THE NE WATERS.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS FORECAST
WATERS. LARGE LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BORDER BETWEEN 95W-125W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS NEAR 21.8N 123.9W AT 2
AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 22.1N 124.3W THIS
AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.0W FRI MORNING, 22.9N 124.7W FRI AFTERNOON,
24.0N 122.8W SAT MORNING, 26.4N 119.9W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 30.2N
116.7W SUN MORNING. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER 39.9N 112.2W EARLY MON. ADDITIONALLY,
THE LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
WATERS STARTING FRI AND CONTINUE INTO SUN.
DELGADO
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