961
WTPZ35 KNHC 081435
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 AM CST THU OCT 08 2026
..HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
..SIMON FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.4N 103.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, SIMON IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A VERY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR SIMON CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST,THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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