336
WTPZ43 KNHC 081446
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
800 AM PDT THU OCT 08 2026
RACHEL'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND -50 C. THE MOST RECENT TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS STILL A 4.0/65 KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 33-56 KT. BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ESTIMATED AT 300/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
BEING STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO TURN RACHEL TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM AS WELL.
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED, SO THERE IS A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS
MOSTLY THE SAME AS THE TRACK PRIOR, ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE EAST HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREAD FOR RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER RACHEL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE STORM
FURTHER. HOWEVER, THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE WATERS NEAR CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
INTERACTION OF THE TROUGH COULD HELP FOSTER THE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
AS WELL. THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF RACHEL
WILL BE A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. REGARDLESS, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.
THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA BY TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
3. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 22.1N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.1N 121.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 28.4N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 32.8N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 42.4N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page